War-torn Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process widely dismissed as a sham, with major political parties banned, many of their leaders imprisoned and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing internal conflict.

A Staggered Vote Amid War

The military government is holding a phased ballot nearly five years after it took control in a coup, which ignited massive protests and escalated into a devastating conflict.

Observers say the junta, with China's support, is attempting to validate and entrench its power as it looks for a way out of the costly deadlock.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the rights of freedom of expression, association or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been charged for interfering with or criticising the election under a recently enacted legislation which carries harsh penalties, including the death penalty.

Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after criticising a film endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, adding that resistance forces have made warnings urging people to shun the polls.

The army has been engaged on several fronts, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It lost control of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year after relentless airstrikes made possible through support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive logistical challenge for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the coming weeks in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it challenging to forecast a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while another 51 parties and non-aligned contenders will compete only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while the rest are in exile.

International Condemnation

"By splitting the vote into stages, the junta can change their approach if the results in the first phase do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the EU legislature, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has called for negotiations to come before any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not intended for the outside world," a junta spokesman stated at a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "progress toward democracy".