Starmer's Allies Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.
Serious Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure
A number of figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to avert any potential leadership challenge.
The Labour hierarchy reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of sources also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The trade unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.
